At The End Of A Very Horrible Week, Europe Finds Itself In A Bind About Ukraine's Response
Only a week ago, the great countries and institutions that hold the Western alliance together triumphed in their unification in the face of Russia's assault against Ukraine.
What a difference a full-fledged invasion makes.
Following Russia's ground assault of Kyiv on Friday morning, Ukraine's obviously irritated President Volodymyr Zelensky remarked, "This morning, we are defending our country alone."
While Russia has been sanctioned by the world's most powerful countries, he claims that "These are insufficient to remove the foreign forces off our country. This can only be accomplished by unity and dedication."
According to Zelensky's tweets, he wants more military support from his friends, including a no-fly zone, as well as tighter sanctions against Russia. One of his main grievances is that Russia was not shut off from SWIFT, a high-security messaging network that connects hundreds of financial institutions all over the world, after the invasion.
Based on the current level of conflict, Zelensky can credibly assert that the united Western response has not yet deterred Vladimir Putin and his regime from invading Ukraine.
Which begs the question: why has the Western response been so lackluster in the face of a full-scale invasion and months of preparation for war?
According to a senior European Union diplomat, when it came down to it, member states were split on how hard to hit Russia, particularly on the issue of SWIFT.
"There is a group of incrementalists who argue that it should be done piecemeal and that we need to maintain something in the tank," the diplomat explained. They did point out, however, that the holdouts had strong economic ties to Russia. They chastised member states who wished to continue exporting luxury items to Russia in particular. "It appears to me that incrementalists are looking for methods to avoid taking the toughest pill first."
So, did the EU merely pass out at the last possible moment? It appears to be a little more complex than that. Officials from a number of Western governments told CNN that the penalties were basically in line with expectations, and that they went even further in several situations than they had hoped.
The Ukraine situation could almost have been tailor-made to show the shortcomings of NATO and the EU, according to a NATO diplomat, because the actors engaged are not members of either.
"NATO members are not enraged by the EU or other allies. The reality is that Article 5 is not an option. When dealing with someone like Putin, sanctions, no matter how severe, can only go so far "According to the NATO ambassador.
Under normal conditions, a bloc of 27 states signing off on the toughest sanctions package would be cause for celebration, according to one EU official.
The problem is that most sanctions are unable to rapidly destabilize an economy in such a way that a war is brought to a halt. And now that Russia has invaded, the situation is completely different.
This is Europe's predicament at the end of a particularly horrible week. It's easy to suggest that sanctions should be tougher or that military alternatives should be considered, or that "more" should be done in an amorphous sense.
The West is united in its opinion that this crisis must be resolved as soon as possible.
Big institutions, on the other hand, are ultimately constrained by their members' will and their opponents' hunger for battle.
And, for the time being, this power dynamic appears to be tilted in Russia's favor.
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